Most certainly. That would require a 37% weekly drop average over the 100-day theatrical run. Very within reach.redfirebird2008 wrote: ↑August 13th, 2023, 10:50 amOppy has a pretty solid chance to reach $800M worldwide excluding Italy/China/South Korea. Curious to see how much those 3 markets will add to the total.
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- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
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Re: Box Office
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
I dream a billion. I did the math. In order to do this, it'll have to average a 29.6% weekly drop worldwide over the course of its 100-day theatrical run. This is possible , but highly unlikely. Once it starts losing theaters (and IMAX screens, no less), then the hope dwindles. The saving graces wi...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
I like Dan Murrel, he's very passionate but ultimately he's just a youtuber. I wouldn't take his word as gospel as he's not much more than a glorified hobbyist and I definitely would always trust a Variety, THR or Deadline reporter over him. And even he says he gets his calculations from what he he...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
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Re: Box Office
Possible Variety was referring to 400m theatrically and then ancillary revenue streams (cable TV deals, home video, VOD sales, etc) covering the rest....? Movies don't stop making money after the box office run, and those ancillary streams tend to have huge margins that cover large portions if not ...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
Let's let this guy settle the score for y'all doubters regarding box office profit (go to 26:35). https://youtu.be/UGltCh-Mbag?t=1595 The only thing I have wrong in my previous calculation is the second week studio take for domestic box office is 55% instead of 60%. I didn't know that this shrinks t...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
Okay, these are my profit line calculations. Somebody dispute me: The studios will pay Nolan per his 20% first-dollar gross contract. Nobody can dispute this, as even Variety says as much (they don't say 20% but that is officially the word, and they might not have known at the time). So what I'll fi...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
Okay, these are my profit line calculations. Somebody dispute me: The studios will pay Nolan per his 20% first-dollar gross contract. Nobody can dispute this, as even Variety says as much (they don't say 20% but that is officially the word, and they might not have known at the time). So what I'll fi...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
Here's the screenshot from the Variety article a couple years ago. Variety (and rival studios) were already accounting for Nolan's special deal, and rival studios might have been overestimating this number if anything to make Universal & Nolan look bad if it came up short of $400 million: https://i...
- Forum: Oppenheimer
- Topic: Box Office
- Replies: 773
- Views: 644364
Re: Box Office
My point of all of this was to say you want to play on the safe side of things, not assume that it has already broken even. And yes, there are many things we haven't factored in, such as exclusive rights to IMAX and whatever else may be involved. So to say that $400 million is the breakeven point th...